Stefan Mileschin

Too complex

While computer modelling has driven much of the pandemic response, the way it is being used in the UK has been slammed.

Dr Thomas House [no really. Ed] , who sits on SPI-M - the group that models the pandemic for the government – told the Express that while models were an essential tool they were far from foolproof.

Despite the name, House is a mathematics reader at the University of Manchester and he is worried that people expect too much accuracy from models of a complex system.

“This does not mean we need to ditch models. You cannot do science without them. Modelling tells you about what might happen. Models can also be useful conceptual tools. However, the models are only as good as the assumptions that they are based upon. They may not account for many things such as seasonality, details of vaccine rollout individual behaviour.

“Nor can they account for our values and culture for example that people have different tolerances of risk. There are always values in politics and these need to be explained and it needs to be clear how the government has made their decisions.”

https://fudzilla.com/news/52445-uk-c...elling-slammed